To meet the rapid-growing demand for electricity in Kuwait, the utility planners need to be informed on the energy consumption to implement energy efficiency measures to manage sustainable load growth and avoid the high costs of increasing generation capacities. The first step of forecasting the future energy profile is to establish a baseline for Kuwait, i.e. the scenario where no energy efficiency incentives were given and the adoption of energy efficient equipment is purely market-driven. This paper presented an investigation of creating a baseline end-use profile until 2040 for the residential sector in Kuwait using a bottom-up approach. The forecast consists of mainly two steps: 1) Forecasting the quantity of the residential energy-consuming equipment in the entire sector until 2040. This paper used a stock-and-flow model that accounts the income level, electrification and urbanization rate to predict the quantify of the equipment over the years until 2040. The next step is to calculate the Unit Energy Consumptions. This study used variety of methods, including simple spreadsheet calculation for water heater and simulation models for cooling equipment. The simulation consists of four DesignBuilder/EnergyPlus archetype models to represent different vintages of the residential dwellings in Kuwait. The models were calibrated to the actual energy usage of the residential sector from 2005 to 2017 to accurately predict the AC energy use. By combining the unit energy consumption and quantity of the equipment over the years, the paper established a baseline energy use profile for different end-use equipment for Kuwait until 2040. The results show that the air conditioning loads account for 67% of residential electrical consumption, and 72% of residential peak demand in Kuwait. The highest energy consuming appliances are refrigerators and freezers. Additionally, the air conditioning loads are expected to rise in the future with an average annual growth rate of 2.9% whereas the lighting and water heating loads are expected to rise at a much smaller rate.
- Turki Alajmi, Ph.D., Research Associate, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research